The US$787 Billion Stimulus Plan

The Stimulus Plan has been approved and US President Obama had signed the bill on 17 Feb 09.

How will the new stimulus bill of U$787 billion help turn the crisis around? By large, it is targeting to stimulate the economy by helping business restart their engines, banks to start lending, job creation and empower consumers with spending power.

A quick look at where the budget aims to help tackle the economical cancer tumor below.

1. Taxes
The recovery package has tax breaks for families that send a child to college, purchase a new car, buy a first home or make the ones they own more energy efficient.

By reducing taxes, people will have more disposable income, to slowly returning cashflow back to the economy.

2. Health insurance
Many workers who lose their health insurance when they lose their jobs will find it cheaper to keep that coverage while they look for work.

Such insurance are costly, often over $1,000 a month. The government will pick up 65% of the total cost of the premium for the first nine months.

3. Infrastructure
Highways repaved for the first time in decades. Century-old waterlines dug up and replaced with new pipes. Aging bridges, stressed under the weight of today's SUVs, reinforced with fresh steel and concrete.

These will help with job creation, which in turn stimulate the economy.

4. Energy
Homeowners looking to save energy, makers of solar panels and wind turbines and companies hoping to bring the electric grid into the computer age all stand to reap major benefits.

5. Schools
A main goal of education spending in the stimulus bill is to help keep teachers on the job.

6. National debt:
One thing about the president's $790 billion stimulus package is certain: It will jack up the federal debt. Whether or not it succeeds in producing jobs and taming the recession, tomorrow's taxpayers will end up footing the bill. The expected deficit will be $1.6 trillion (including $800 billion by the ex-president).

The US national debt — the sum of all annual budget deficits — stands at $10.7 trillion. Or about $36,000 for every man, woman and child in the U.S.

7. Environment
The package includes $9.2 billion for environmental projects at the Interior Department and the Environmental Protection Agency. The money would be used to shutter abandoned mines on public lands, to help local governments protect drinking water supplies, and to erect energy-efficient visitor centers at wildlife refuges and national parks.
The Interior Department estimates that its portion of the work would generate about 100,000 jobs over the next two years.

8. Police
The compromise bill doles out more than $3.7 billion for police programs, much of which is set aside for hiring new officers. There will also be budget to fund drug task forces, prisoner rehabilitation and after-school programs among others.

9. Higher Education
The maximum Pell Grant, which helps the lowest-income students attend college, would increase from $4,731 currently to $5,350 starting July 1 and $5,550 in 2010-2011. That would cover three-quarters of the average cost of a four-year college. An extra 800,000 students, or about 7 million, would now get Pell funding.

Other target areas in Education includes school building projects, tuition fees, computer expenses, research facilities, etc.

10. The Poor
More than 37 million Americans live in poverty, and the vast majority of them are in line for extra help under the giant stimulus package. Millions more could be kept from slipping into poverty by the economic lifeline.

Taken together, the various credits are expected to keep more than 2 million Americans from falling into poverty, including more than 800,000 children, according to the private Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

(source : http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/stimulus_stakes_who_gets_what)

A Good President Solves Problem. A Lousy President Creates Problems (goes to war and cause runaway inflation).

Singapore Growth (GDP) Forecast

When the Ministry of Trade and Industry announced (on 21 Jan 09) the growth forecast for 2009 to be between -2% to -5%, I joked that "Wah, such a wide range of percentage, sure hit one. Anyone can also project that, it's idiot proof". With all those Elites working on their analysis, they come out with such vast ranging figures? It was indeed a big joke.

Now I'm wondering if I have to eat my words because the Prime Minister just dealt us with another knee jerking announcement.

"Our GDP growth is forecast to be between -2 and -5 percent. It could be worse if the global economy worsens, even lower than -5 percent is possible," Lee was quoted as saying at a government function on Sunday.

(source : http://sg.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20090223/tap-singapore-economy-c3bb44c.html)

I also have a lot of doubts of the government's foresight these days. Where's the wisdom they used to brag? The economical problem the world is facing, was foreseeable. People were too complacent, too oblivious of the signs.

World's Priciest Cities To Own A Home

It was reported recently, in Globalpropertyguide.com the top 10 cities to own a home. The report is based on apartments in the city-centre, with about 120sqm built-in area. This list was compute out of a total of 110 cities around the world.


Most Costly Cities
1. Monte Carlo, Monaco - average prices of $4,420 psf
2. Moscow, Russia - average prices of $1,937 psf (rental yield 4.61%)
3. London, UK - average prices of $1,928 psf (rental yield 4.12%)
4. Toyko, Japan - average prices of $1,672 psf (rental yield 4.86%)
5. Hong Kong - average prices of $1,498 psf (rental yield 3.73%)
6. New York, USA - average prices of $1,384 psf (rental yield 4.37%)
7. Paris, France - average prices of $1,126 psf (rental yield 4.26%)
8. Singapore - average prices of $901 psf (rental yield 3.97%)
9. Rome, Italy - average prices of $851 psf (rental yield 3.62%)
10. Mumbai, India - average prices of $851 psf (rental yield 4.21%)


High property price is usually associated to shortage of space.


On the opposite, the least expensive cities (it's so cheap I've to use 2 decimal points) based on the same property type above as follows:

Lease Costly Cities
1. Cairo, Egypt - average prices of $53.33 psf
2. Bangalore, India - average prices of $61.04 psf
3. Concepción, Chile - average prices of $62.15 psf

4. Quito, Ecuador - average prices of $76.18 psf
5. Chengdu, China - average prices of $92.81 psf
6. Managua, Nicaragua - average prices of $100.33 psf
7. Jakarta, Indonesia - average prices of $102.34 psf
8. Amman, Jordan - average prices of $106.84 psf
9. Lima, Peru - average prices of $107.21 psf
10. Santiago, Chile - average prices of $113.43 psf

However, high property price must be supported by high gross rental yields. Rental yield below 5% suggest that the property is overvalued. The historical average rental yield is between 5.5% to 8.0%.

Singapore is one the few countries in Asia with low rental yield. The list of top rental yields are (against property price/position) :

Highest Rental Yield
1. Chisinau, Moldova - 14.17% (100 placed, $122.26 psf)
2. Cairo, Egypt - 12.0% (112 placed, $53.33 psf)

3. Jakarta, Indonesia - 11.27% (106 placed, $102.34 psf)
4. Manila, Philippines - 10.99% (87 placed, $177.81 psf)
5. Skopje, Macedonia - 10.11% (101 placed, $121.05 psf)
6. Lima, Peru - 10.09% (104 placed, $107.21 psf)
7. Panama City, Panama - 9.98% (92 placed, $161.65 psf)
8. Amman, Jordan - 9.73% (105 placed, $106.84 psf)
9. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia - 9.22% (99 placed, $125.14 psf)
10. Bogota, Colombia - 9.19% (98 placed, $130.25 psf)

Rental yield reflects the Returns On Investment for the landlord. Rental yield reflects if the property is over-valued or under-valued. Thus if the rental yield is low, it suggest that the property could likely be over-valued.

Before anyone jumps to conclusion that since rental yield is low for any selected country, it reflects that the property is over-valued and not worth buying, let is also look at mortgage rates.

How does Mortgage Interest Rate affect ROI? Interest is part of ownership cost. If interest rates are high, it will errode Rental Yield. Example
- Jarkata, Indonesia - Rental Yield 11.27%, Mortgage Interest Rate above 10% (heard up to 15%)
- Singapore - Rental Yield 3.97%, Mortgage Interest Rate 2.5% (SIBOR package)

Thus if the Mortgage Interest is higher than rental yield, there is barely any returns if we require loans to finance the property. All the rental yield will go towards interest payment.

The consolation is, with the recession, property price will continue to weaken. Property prices in Singapore has saw weakening since late 2008 and has continue erroding. At this rate, property price will soon be reasonably valued (not over-valued nor under-valued).

Note : All prices in US Dollars. PSF refers to Per Square Feet. SIBOR refers to Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (or Central Bank Rate).