Quota for Permenant Residents Buying Resale HDB

The government announced in late January 2o10 that they are considering imposing a quota on Permenant Residents (PR) buying resale HDB flats. This is taken from two angles. Firstly, they claimed this is to prevent congregating of groups of nationalities. Next, this is in light of their intention to cool the HDB prices.

In recent times, there are blames on PRs driving up property prices. Are the PRs really guilty of causing property prices to escalate in recent years?

(1) En-bloc
In the years 2005 to 2007, there were many en-bloc in mature private condominium estates. This made residents cash rich. While waiting for their new condo, some opt to purchase a HDB flat as their temporory housing.

With loads of cash on hand, they could easily dish out high Cash Over Valuation (COV). At one stage, a 5-room HDB flat was asking for $100,000 COV. So who drove up COV?

(2) PRs and CPF
Many PRs wouldn't have much CPF funds within the first 5 years of obtaining their PR status. Cash on hand is also limited for many. A simple senario:
- Valuation : $500,000
- Cash Over Valuation : $50,000
- CPF Available Funds : $30,000
- Downpayment : $100,000 (20% valuation) + $50,000 (COV)
- Total Cash Outlay : $120,000 ($150k - $30k CPF). This amt excludes Stamp Fees, etc.

Do PRs have that much money to pay high COV? Not forgetting, the amount above is just a simple illustration on purchasing a HDB flat, and not taking into consideration, renovation, purchase of applicances, etc.

(3) PR Quota
If there is a consistent amount of PRs buying HDB flats and a consistent supply of sellers of HDB flats prior to the quota, with the new quota (limiting PRs to HDB flats), wouldn't that drive up prices?

Demand is now narrowed to limited supply. When Demand exceeds Supply, prices goes up.

(4) Effect on Resale Flats that Can't Be Sold to PRs
If the neighbhour sold his flat at $550,000, would the next seller with similar condition sold his flat at $500,000?


So, how does the policy affect HDB prices?

Time To Spend?

It was reported on the news, Certificate of Entitlement (COE) for vehicles have gone up in recent times, but car dealers have slashed prices for new cars to lure in buyers as the Lunar New Year approaches.

Quote Chin Chee Min, Senior Manager C&C Kia, "We will sacrisfice a lot of our profit margin. But if we don't do it now, we won't get in tune with the buying sentiments with the customers."

What is causing the buying sentiments? The economy looks set to recover, the global recession appears over, consumer confidence have strengthen. But are we not walking into the same path as in year 2007, where buyer confidence were at sky high and people were spending like they are set to get a windfall?

When the economy is recovering, it is unwise to spend lavishingly. That is as good as spending what we do not have yet.

Spending should be based on what we have. In recovery stage, it is wise to save up and invest as the market will recover first thus the returns on investment will be higher.

It's never too late to spend but it is always too late to save.

What Is The Interest Rate Prediction in 2010?

With the global recession easing off in the last quarter 2009, nations Central Banks are looking at adjusting interest rates.

America's Federal Reserve Chairman have hinted that interest rates may need to be adjusted upwards soon to help recovery. Many other countries' Central Banks, including America, have held onto interest rates for the Q1 2010.

For the first time in 5 months, China's Central Bank have adjusted interest rates upwards, by 0.04%, from 1.328% to 1.3684%. The increase is to cool the supercharged economy and control inflation.

With recovering economy, like in year 2004 and 2005, interest rates are destined to head north. In year 2004, interest rates for home loans were as low as 0.5% but by late 2005, it reach 4.0%. Will this pattern occur again in 2010?

A quick look at SIBOR Rates may give us an idea how SIBOR rates will move this year.

Months : Jan 10 - July 09 - Jan 09 - July 08 - Jan 08

3mths : 0.6833% - 0.6867% - 0.9680% - 1.1870% - 2.3750%

12mths : 0.9192% - 0.9242% - 1.2390% - 1.8750% - 2.6250%

Two years ago, in January 2008, it was the meltdown of the US Sub Prime, which lead to the start of recession. SIBOR rates starts to tumble rapidly for the whole year. In the last one year, since February 2009 till January 2010, interest rates stablized with little variation.

Chances of SIBOR going up in 2010 is high. Plan your finances carefully. If you are servicing high monthly mortgage, involving cash, becareful. Chances are, you will be paying more in the coming months.